AUDJPY long investigation on the Daily

August 2, 2023

We are looking at the last Weekly move down on the Daily chart. We are able to find the moves of 3s, with special importance to the last 5 closed candles. Looking back a bit more, the entire move down shows the signs of a proper full cycle with price accumulating for days, then extending the range of accumulation, stopping out traders twice and suddenly hitting the low at the monthly mid line, trapping short players within 3 days. Regarding the the most recent move to the upside, we have 2 days of long and a retest of the most recent area of accumulation (Day 1 range). It is also the middle line of the most recent low and high, traders are trapped in-between. This time we can start projecting the possible path for the price that might either hit June’s peak high or go beyond if an alternative patters is played out. Although it is not impossible for the price to drop further into the accumulation area of 28 July before moving up, regarding today’s trade, if long is played, we do not want to see price dropping below today’s low and we would play long only after seeing how the Asian session plays out tomorrow (or we may change the view on long entirely). Let’s dial down to H4 and see if there are any further clues for a long trade.